Ideas

Allen Adamson
Co-Founder & Managing Partner
Doritos vs. FanDuel: Early Leaders in the REAL Super Bowl Competition
While football fans debate which teams will face off in New Orleans this February, another high-stakes contest is already underway: the battle for Super Bowl advertising supremacy.
With Fox charging over $7 million for a 30-second commercial slot, plus production costs, talent fees, and special effects pushing total investments to $10-15 million per brand, the pressure to stand out has never been higher.
Having analyzed brands for decades, I've watched countless Super Bowl ads succeed and fail. The multi-million-dollar question is always the same: Who will break through, get noticed, communicate a relevant message about the brand, and score an impactful sales touchdown? Breaking through the Super Bowl clutter isn't about throwing the most celebrities or outrageous scenarios at viewers.
Who will be remembered for the intense pressure to stand out but not for the brand that brought you the commercial? The winners grasp where consumers' heads are at that moment. In today's divided America, I'm placing early bets on brands that adhere to football's unifying power and embrace simplicity. Two early front-runners demonstrate this principle.
Doritos, a true Super Bowl heavyweight with appearances in at least 15 Big Games (sometimes multiple ads per year), cleverly uses classic focus group tropes while hedging its bets on likely contenders. By bringing NFL players into the familiar territory of office conference rooms and conflicting opinions, they've created a relatable scenario that resonates with everyday viewers.
Meanwhile, FanDuel, marking its third consecutive Super Bowl appearance with high-profile NFL personalities, taps into football nostalgia with the Manning brothers' field goal competition. It's a smart play that captures the backyard duels across America, where sibling rivalry meets sports. Thus, the competitive spirit of betting feels more approachable and familiar.
But we're just in the pregame show. From newcomers like Häagen-Dazs (with their intriguing car chase teasers) and MSC Cruises to veterans like Bud Light, over 30 brands will compete for attention. Having done this for many years, I know that predicting success is as tricky as picking the game's winner. It requires understanding where consumers' heads are and not just using the most unexpected celebrity and the most outlandish context.
The multi-million-dollar question remains: Who will break through with memorability and brand meaning to score that coveted sales touchdown? Given the country's polarization this year, my money's on those who keep it simple and stay close to the game itself.

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