Ideas
Allen Adamson
Co-Founder & Managing Partner
Five Brands That Own Tomorrow And Five That Are Running Out of Time to Change
Several years ago, NYU Stern Professor Joel Steckel and I set out to understand why powerful brands fail to adapt and wrote Shift Ahead: How the Best Companies Stay Relevant in a Fast Changing World. The brands in the headlines have changed, but the pattern hasn't: Brands rarely die from a single, sudden mistake. They die from failing to invest in future relevance while still successful.
The principle is simple: Winning brands proactively change their strategic focus; failing brands wait for the crisis.
For the five established giants below, their failure to act sooner means they are now in a desperate race against the clock. They lack the resources, the money, the time, and crucially, the best talent (which leaves before the sales drop), to execute the profound transformation required.
The battle for relevance in 2026 is no longer about incremental product improvement. It is about those who built an unassailable ecosystem versus those who remain narrowly focused on defending a single, shrinking transaction.
Here are five contrasting pairs that illustrate the brands building tomorrow's dominance and the established giants whose window for fundamental change is rapidly closing.
2026 Winner: Microsoft Teams
Strategic Focus: Ecosystem Integration.
Microsoft did not merely build a better video tool; they made Teams the indispensable collaboration hub seamlessly integrated with the entire Office 365 ecosystem. Their proactive investment in AI (Copilot) and pervasive chat allows them to treat video as a feature, not the product. The customer experience (CX) is defined by deep, enterprise wide convenience and low switching cost for existing Microsoft users.
Running Out of Time: Zoom
The Change Needed: Platform Parity.
Zoom won the pandemic by being fast and easy, but it remained a standalone tool in an ecosystem war. They waited too long to build a comprehensive collaboration environment that extended beyond the meeting itself. To survive, Zoom must undergo a massive, costly pivot to become a genuine, open source replacement for the entire Office suite, a strategic shift that requires billions in research and development and a complete organizational transformation, resources Zoom's decelerated growth now makes almost impossible to amass.
Related Thinking
1. B2B Collaboration: The Ecosystem
2026 Winner: Alo Yoga
Strategic Focus: Lifestyle Ecosystem.
Alo Yoga understood that apparel is just the entry point. They built Alo Moves (streaming fitness), expanded into wellness (supplements, skincare), and designed their stores as sanctuaries, not just retail. Their focus is on creating a world customers want to live inside, not just a brand they buy from. The result is deep emotional loyalty and multiple revenue streams that reinforce each other.
Running Out of Time: Macy's
The Change Needed: Real Estate Liability.
Macy's is trapped in a fragmented omnichannel strategy. Their oversized real estate became a huge liability, and their core focus remains discount driven, which erodes brand equity. To earn a future, Macy's must reimagine their entire real estate strategy as fulfillment and high touch service centers, eliminating the sales floor clutter and self service friction that define their current experience. The focus must shift from square footage to service fulfillment efficiency.
2. Retail/Apparel: Selling Experience vs. Selling Space
2026 Winner: Apple (Ecosystem)
Strategic Focus: Frictionless Utility.
Apple's strategy is to treat payments as an Ecosystem First, Frictionless Utility. Their proactive investment in Apple Pay and Apple Pay Later embedded finance directly into the operating system. The CX is defined by convenience, security, and low friction, treating the transaction as a utility that reinforces the value of its ecosystem.
Running Out of Time: PayPal
The Change Needed: Operational Friction.
PayPal's CX adds friction (an extra login step) and their Product is fragmented (Venmo, Honey, PayPal). They waited too long to make the investment necessary to eliminate friction from the checkout experience. To survive against the ecosystem giants, PayPal must execute a radical shift to an invisible, API driven system that eliminates every point of friction in the transaction process.
3. Financial Services: The Frictionless Utility
Asking “How,” Not “What,” Has Become the Driving Force Behind Today’s Most Successful Businesses
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Running Out of Time: Walgreens
The Change Needed: Operational Fragmentation. Walgreens' core business model is built on physical foot traffic and dispensing fees. Their CX is defined by long lines and manual verification at the pharmacy counter. To compete, Walgreens must convert their stores to localized micro fulfillment hubs for same day delivery, dedicating high cost human pharmacists to high value consultations and complex care, shifting the core focus from transaction to proactive service.
4. Healthcare/Pharmacy: Convenience as the Cure
2026 Winner: Amazon Pharmacy / One Medical
Strategic Focus: Ecosystem First.
Amazon's strategy is to treat healthcare as an Ecosystem First, Frictionless Utility. By acquiring One Medical and leveraging the Prime membership base, their CX is defined by convenience, subscription value, and removal of insurance hassles. Their goal is to make healthcare feel like a seamless, digital utility, not a frustrating chore.
2026 Winner: Chewy
Strategic Focus: Emotional CX.
Chewy built an Emotional Relationship Engine disguised as a DTC business. Their legendary CX, sympathy cards, 24/7 vet chat, and personalized service, made pet parents feel deeply valued. Their focus is built on data driven retention (Autoship) and ecosystem expansion (pharmacy, insurance).
Running Out of Time: Petco
The Change Needed: Transactional Mindset.
Petco treated an emotional category like simple retail. Their CX is transactional and their attempts to add services (vet, grooming) feel like costly, disconnected bolt ons. To catch up, Petco must reinvent its physical footprint to act as Wellness Consultation Centers, using technology to integrate the in store service data into a truly proactive, predictive digital experience, finally making the physical store an asset over Chewy's digital dominance.
5. Pet Care: Building Relationships, Not Aisles
The lesson for every executive is this: Tomorrow's winners did not wait for the market to force their hand. They had the courage to zoom out and change their entire operating model while the business was still profitable. They were already operating in the future while their competitors were still debating whether to change.
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